Reagan 2.0: Why Donald Trump Will Win in a Massive Landslide

Reagan 2.0: Why Donald Trump Will Win in a Massive Landslide

In the preceding posts, I discussed my conversion to the Trump Train, why Hillary is the demonic Satan Spawn from Hell and cannot be allowed to win, and why in the world Trump has received so much support despite the initial backlash. But now, with the election looming before us a mere days away, I thought I would end this series discussing why I think that Donald Trump will not only win, but why he will win in the biggest landslide since 1980.

I have adapted much of my article from this fantastic article I read a few months back. It was one of the few articles then that dared to question the mainstream anti-Trump onslaught, and it compiled so many great points that I was inspired to do a compilation of my own. So here’s why I think that Mr. Trump will win big-league on November 8th.

The Numbers

1. Primaries. You’ll hear Trump tout this a lot, but it truly is a remarkable feat. Among a total of 17 initial candidates, many of whom survived to Super Tuesday, Donald Trump still won the most votes of any Republican in Republican party history. 14.01 million. That was only with 45% of the vote. He completely shattered Bush’s record of 12.09 million, even when Bush received 62% of the vote when the field was far less divided. In comparison to the Democrats, the percentages are looking great too. Democrats cast 8 million less votes than in 2008 (I didn’t look at 2012 because incumbent turnout is always lower), a decrease of 21%. Republicans cast 10.2 million more votes compared to 2008 and 11.9 million more votes compared to 2012 (Yes, there were more Republican votes in 2008. Romney…so low energy). That’s an increase of 49% since 2008 and 62% since 2012!

This is huge, y’all. Democrats typically overtake Republicans in primary turnout, but this year we broke 31 million and beat the Democrats in turnout by over 1 million! Even with Bernie Sanders in the race, the Democrats clearly were not happy with their choices. And with Hillary Clinton being their nominee, that’s not likely to change, especially since some polls are reporting 30% of the Bernie Bros coming to Trump — just as Trump predicted.

2. Rallies and social media. Political scientists will scorn me for this, but frankly I think it’s too glaring not to mention. They may not be perfectly reliable numbers, but they’re still numbers. And unlike polls, they’re raw numbers. They’re flawed, but at least we know they’re flawed. They are not purposefully deceptive like many of these absurd media polls (a month before the election and there’s a poll with Clinton up 12? Gimme a break. And yes, I did check most of the poll methodologies. In short, they’re biased, vague, and a disgrace to modern science. But I’ll save that hefty analysis for another day. Just know that we were right and they oversample Democrats by 7-12%). 

As many of you have probably noticed, Trump’s crowd’s are enormous. YUGE in fact. Tens of thousands show up consistently, often with overflow crowds of thousands more. The Austin rally I was at had about eight or nine thousand, but hey, it’s Austin, and that’s still an impressive number. Hillary can barely fill a high school gym with 500 people, let alone nine thousand. Sometimes she gets a thousand or two (occasionally three), but it’s never much more than that. Check out her sad numbers in comparison to Trump’s here. Notice too that’s Trump’s numbers are pretty conservative, because I can tell you for certain that there were way more than 6500 people at the Austin rally. That stadium could hold 10,000 if you wanted, and except for a section in the corner (bad view. People stood instead), it was packed.

What about other candidates? Certainly they had big crowds too? Yes, but not as many nor as consistently. Romney only passed 20K after his nomination, and McCain couldn’t even hope to get at least that much. Obama got crowds of 35K, 85K, and even 100K in St. Louis, but hey, that’s Obama. And look, he won! Can’t be that useless of a measurement. At the very least, they’re great for measuring enthusiasm, and enthusiasm is key for voter turnout.

Now let’s look at social media. This analysis is from August, so the numbers are obviously higher now (e.g. FB: 11.8M for Trump, 7.6M for Clinton; Twitter: 12.8M Trump, 10.1 M Clinton), but the general trends still stand. Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and even Instagram — Trump has more followers on every single one of these platforms. Even then, Hillary’s Facebook page has a ceaseless slew of anti-Hillary comments on almost every single post. It’s incredibly hilarious. And on Reddit, the Hillary For Prison feed has more subscribers than Hillary’s actual page. The real devastation is in the live streams though. On Youtube, RSBN actively has anywhere from 15K to 20K people watching live. Any of the Hillary streams barely break 1000, and again even then the comments are negative. On Facebook live, Trump gets anywhere from 16K on other pages to 72K on his actual page, while Clinton can’t even break 1000 on some pages and gets to 5K on her own page. But yet again, most of the Clinton live stream comments are negative! It’s even more comical to see the giant line of angry faces fly across the screen:

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And let’s not forget the memes and hundreds of thousands of Trump-related creative videos all over Youtube. Everything from Batman to anime to thug life, and most of them get anywhere from thousands to millions of views. Check out this You Can’t Stump the Trump series:

Millions of people on Trump’s social media, tens of thousands of people live online and at rallies, thousands of creative Trump videos all over Youtube, and you’re telling me Hillary’s winning? You can tell me that with a straight face? As much as I respect political scientists, they could use a bit of common sense every once in a while. But wait, I hear them say. Surely these numbers do not reflect the actual electorate, right? Perhaps, but then you’d have to apply the same argument to Hillary. If only Trump fanatics are going to Trump rallies, then only Hillary fanatics are going to Hillary rallies. Of course, we all know it’s not that simple.

So should we believe these figures? I’d say we should take them with a grain of salt, but we certainly shouldn’t discount them entirely. Especially the social media stuff. In the growing days of technology, it would be great if political scientists found ways to quantify these trends to help predict elections (Google is certainly trying! Check out the Google Trends for Obama vs Romney and Trump vs. Clinton. Trump is crushing her!). And for crying out loud, if we really want to discredit rally size sufficiently, why do we not have tabulated masses of data and trendlines showing this to be the case? I’m sure it wouldn’t be all that difficult.

3. Models. There are two big mathematical models created by political scientists that have predicted a Trump win. Dr. Allan Lichtman used his 13 Keys model (more details here) to predict a Trump victory. It takes into account various economic, political, and social factors, such as incumbency and social unrest. The model has accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote since 1984.

Likewise, Dr. Helmut Norpoth calculates an 87% chance of a Trump victory according to his Primary Model (more details here). His model uses primary results and the “pendulum swing” of parties every election cycle to predict the winner. The model predicted the past five elections correctly (in terms of popular vote), and retroactively it predicted every election since 1912 except the 1960 election (which was very close).

4. History. If you still have lingering doubts about these numbers, here’s one final nail in the coffin (check out this article to follow along). Since 1836, we have had 20 elections without an incumbent running. Of these 20 elections, the out-party won 13 times, or 65%. Of the 7 that the in-party won, 5 of these were won by Republicans (71%). Digging deeper, the numbers get even better. Today we are in what political scientists dub a “competitive party era,” meaning that parties are so competitively equivalent that elections tend to be close calls. Looking at the eight open-seat elections from competitive party eras (4 from 1868-1892, 4 from 1968-2008), the out-party won 4 out of 7 (57%). But here’s the kicker. Of the three that the in-party won, all of them were Republicans. In fact, an in-party Democrat successor has not won the general election since 1856. How about them apples?

The Strategy

5. Marketing. Despite Trump’s unconventional, unpolished mannerisms and seemingly unintelligent speaking style, in hindsight the man is a marketing genius. Some have speculated that his controversial antics earned him over $3 billion in media coverage without spending a penny of his own money. This idea of free coverage hit me like a ton of bricks whenever I saw someone post this marketing funnel:

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You can’t sell a product without getting your name out there first. For better or worse, Donald Trump wanted everyone to know of his existence, and what better way to do so than by stirring up juicy headlines? In his own words, “Controversy sells.” He very well could have stood up there and acted presidential and professional like the rest of them if he wanted to, and believe it or not, he is quite capable of doing so (check out his old interviews). Yet in our age of technology, entertainment, professional politics, big money, and intense media scrutiny, he knew that if he wanted to win, he had to play by a different set of rules. And boy did it pay off “big league.”

Once he got his name out there, the rest was smooth sailing (marketing-wise anyway). In fact, I’ve never seen a Republican utilize as much social media as this man has. And thank the Lord for it, because heaven knows when the GOP would have ever grown a brain and actually tried to compete with the Democrats. Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Youtube, Reddit. He even did a Reddit Q&A on a plane ride once. Yet his Twitter is arguably not just one part of his campaign (#MAGA #TrumpTrain#CrookedHillary #DrainTheSwamp), but a central foundational element of it. Remember how much the media covered his Tweets in the early days of his campaign? They were all over headlines! But of course, his supporters didn’t care all too much. After all this time, his Tweets simply remind us of who he is and who he will always be, a no-nonsense straight-shooter who loves this country and wants to make it great again. And we love him for it.

In addition to marketing himself fantastically, he also markets his enemies into total annihilation. The Democrats have been masters of Alinsky-style name-calling tactics, labelling Republicans everything from racist to sexist to bigoted to homophobic to Islamophobic, etc. But the problem is that these labels don’t stick. They have no substance. When you examine them more carefully, you’ll find that they, for the most part, simply don’t hold up to scrutiny. And frankly, they’re just really negative. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has taken their tactic and perfected it better than they could ever hope to achieve. Instead of strict name-calling, he calls his opponents “Lyin’ Ted,” “Crooked Hillary,” “Low-energy Jeb,” and “Little Marco.” And they stick. They become a part of every meme, hashtag, and headline imaginable. They’re fun, they’re entertaining, and they’re not those lame negative names Democrats keep using. And of course, they have substance. Hillary is crooked, Jeb is boring and low energy, and Ted is a big fat snake liar. “Little Marco” is really the only one that’s just for giggles. But, considering Trump’s discussion of the size of his “hands,” it’s yet another genius recipe to establish his enemies as inferior — they’re either corrupt or beta-males. Hats off to you, Mr. Trump. You truly are the alpha.

Lastly, here are a couple great videos that go into even further detail on Trump’s words and powers of persuasion. They really blew my mind, especially the “5 Mental Tricks” video.

6. Charisma. The man has incredible energy. He’s like a rockstar. Everywhere he goes, he exudes this immense stage presence of strength and dominance, like he’s a person you don’t want to mess with and can get things done. This perception of him is of course further pronounced in all of the Republican debates, where he beta-males all those wussies into submission (even at the debate he wasn’t at!). At his rallies he’s much more fun-loving and laid back, but because he’s connecting with his base it actually makes him look like an even greater alpha. I mean, talk about stamina! He’ll often hold 2-3 rallies per day with other stops in between, even on weekends. It’s insane. 

Something that at least partly contributes to his rockstar status is his success, both as a businessman and as a celebrity. He was a star of one of the most successful reality television shows for over ten years. His name is on buildings and resorts all over the world, and it’s on every other product you can imagine from clothes and wines to water, steaks, and magazines. He’s a builder. He’s created hundreds of thousands of jobs and brings wealth and prosperity to everything he touches. His work ethic, energy, and success remind us of the untapped potential residing within the American spirit — that amazing things can be accomplished if we just set our minds to it. He truly embodies what it means to be an American.

Hillary doesn’t have any of that. She has the energy of an old, robotic, granny seahag with the temperament of a two-year-old schoolgirl on bipolar medication. She is a pathological liar with nothing but 30 years of America-hating baggage and corruption under her belt. She never built anything. She never helped anyone outside her sphere of money-grubbing, ivory tower elites. She’s a typical “all talk no action” politician, and the American people want no more of that. 

The Culture

7. The country is sick. When I was against Trump’s candidacy, I was thinking far too idealistically. I didn’t see the forest for the trees. But then I started thinking like a doctor. This country is sick. People are hurting. The economy is terrible. We’re $19 trillion in debt. People have lost their jobs and businesses to NAFTA, high taxation, and absurd regulations, while illegals and refugees are treated like royalty and get all the jobs and money. Trump sure wasn’t lying about growth either. GDP was 0.8% in the first quarter of this year and 1.4% in the second quarter. Horrible. Now it’s 2.9% for Lord-knows what reason. Probably some nonsense stimulus Obama created to try to save his precious Queen in time for the election.

Likewise, families, businesses, and doctors have been crippled by Obamacare. Premiums and deductibles are absurd, and many citizens and insurance companies are simply backing out of the marketplace and have even found ways to get their customers around the penalty. It sucks so much that it’s crumbling in on itself, but not nearly fast enough. Our family’s been in health insurance for over twenty years, and because of Obamacare we’re having to work twice as hard just to make less money (sound familiar?). No more. Repeal and Replace! 

Arguably worst of all, we are a nation bleeding on the inside. Race relations are terrible, no thanks to Obama and the Soros-funded gang of violent, looting, highway-blocking thugs known as the Black Lives Matter movement. Police are murdered and treated like trash, with no gratitude whatsoever for everything they do. It is a level of division that would make MLK turn over in his grave. Drugs and illegal aliens are allowed to pour in across the border, and many of the criminal aliens get away with rape and murder without proper justice. ISIS and radical Islam has spread like a cancer across the world, including to our own shores. Paris, Brussels, Nice, Boston, San Bernardino, Orlando, and now recently New York and New Jersey. How many more innocent people have to die before we get the picture? How many more Americans have to die? How much longer can we hold onto this dire need for political correctness and molly-coddling under an absurd banner of diversity and compassion until we can name our enemy and actually protect our citizens? And now we want to let in refugees from the regions trying to kill us when we cannot properly vet them? The same people who single-handedly turned Europe into a dirty rapefugee cesspool? It’s insane. The safety of our citizens should be our utmost priority. America first. Donald Trump is the candidate of Law and Order, and he will make our country safe again.

We’re also bleeding from inside the government itself. People are sick of our values and love of country being eroded under an anti-American administration that panders to the Cult of Social Justice and allows it to spread like a cancer (i.e. feminism), sick of Obama wielding exorbitant power and doing whatever he wants while Congress does nothing, sick of nine judges legislating their corrupt agenda onto 300 million people, and sick of politicians who do not represent them in any way — who put on a big smile onstage and claim to have the American people’s best interests at heart, while behind-the-scenes they are only interested in strengthening themselves and their donors. Forget Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct, forget the ridiculous sexual accusations against Trump. These people have brutally raped America herself for the past several decades. No more. Donald Trump is beholden to no one except us. What you see is what you get. America first. 

If there’s anything my physician shadowing taught me, it’s that you always listen to your patients. You never look down on them, you never treat them as second-rate, and you certainly never ignore their concerns. And at all costs, you do everything in your power to make life better for them. Donald Trump is our nation’s physician. He hears our cries, our pains, our heartaches, and he wants to do everything he can to bring us healing. He is our voice, and he will be our greatest champion.

8. Unity and patriotism. All that hurt, all that pain, all those desperate cries going unheard. But then Donald Trump comes along, and I see a level of joy and patriotism the likes of which I have never seen before in the faces of my fellow Americans. Pure, unabated joy and love for one’s country. Frankly, Trump supporters are some of the most optimistic, wonderful people I’ve ever met. You know how stadiums are usually quiet during the national anthem? Well, imagine a stadium full of 10,000 people actually singing the national anthem together. Chanting “USA, USA, USA” over and over again. Those are his rallies. It’s incredible. Black or white, man or woman, gay or straight, Hispanic or non-Hispanic, Democrat or Republican — all of us, from every creed, color, and background — even people who have never voted for 10, 20 years, or even their whole lives — are uniting behind Donald Trump. It’s not just amazing, it’s extraordinary. Don’t let the media fool you. It’s not just a bunch of straight white dudes supporting him. It’s everyone. 

As Pastor Mark Burns says, “The only colors that matter are the colors of the red, white, and blue!” Here are some great numbers for you: Rasmussen has been doing a tracking poll of African Americans, and as of October 25th, Trump is at 16%! And on October 13th, he reached a high of 24%. Do y’all realize how huge this is? Romney got 5% of the black vote in 2012. Five. Whether or not these Rasmussen polls are accurate, it’s clear that Donald Trump has gotten far more black support than Romney, McCain, or their ilk could ever hope to get. Black pastors especially. They see their communities hurting, and they’re tired of it. Tired of Democrats and politicians of all stripes doing nothing for them. No more. 

That said, I find it incredible that Donald Trump does things that are unheard of for Republicans, things that Democrats have traditionally had a monopoly over and that citizens have been practically begging Republicans to do as well. We’re supposed to be the party of Lincoln, the party of unity, so why do we allow the Democrats to take plantation control over blacks, Hispanics, women, and LGBT citizens? It’s ridiculous. But then Donald Trump comes along, and he says no more. He goes straight to the inner cities, the black churches, the black communities, and he tells them, “What the hell do you have to lose?” Just as it rightfully was after the Civil War, Donald Trump wants the Republican party to once more be the home of the African American and the African American vote. The reign of the Democrat plantation is over. The era of unity has arrived.

There’s more. He goes to the women and tells them he’s going to provide childcare and maternity leave without crippling small businesses, he goes to Hispanics and tells them he’s going to stop illegal immigration so that they have more jobs, he goes to the Haitians and tells them he’s going to revive Haiti from Clinton corruption, he goes to the veterans and tells him he’s going to overhaul the VA, he goes to the evangelicals and tells them he’s going to repeal the Johnson Amendment and appoint pro-life justices, he goes to the LGBT community and tells them he’s going to stop radical Islamic terrorism and keep them safe, he goes to the teachers and tells them that he’s going to repeal Common Core and bring school choice, he goes to the farmers and tells them he’s going to stop the regulations crippling their farms, he goes to the coal miners and tells them he’s going to put them back in business, he goes to the manufacturers and tells them he’s bringing their jobs back from Mexico and China, and he goes to heroin-stricken communities and tells them he’s going to stop the drugs from pouring in.

Take a moment and let all that soak in. What politician would ever do something like this? What politician would ever hold round tables and town halls with all of these groups of people specifically addressing their concerns? The man sincerely cares. He doesn’t hold a position because it’ll get him votes, but simply because it’s the right thing to do.

Which brings me to why this movement is so special. Everything Donald Trump does, every policy position he holds is centered around Americanism. His tax policy, trade policy, immigration policy (WALL!), healthcare policy, foreign policy, etc. are all about America first. Fundamentally, that’s why I think people support him. They don’t care too much about the specifics of each policy, they just care about what it means to them. Because at the end of the day this isn’t a policy war, this is a culture war. Our country was founded upon a spirit of courage, unity, patriotism, and an unwavering desire to do what’s right, and that is not a spirit that can be easily subdued. It’s in our blood. Yet for the past 100 years, the elites and progressives have desperately tried to squelch it. They tried to divide us, tried to destroy us from the inside. They thought they had succeeded, they thought they had won. But then Donald Trump steps into the fray, and he single-handedly reminds us that that spirit never left us. He merely tapped into something visceral inside all of us, and now the sleeping giant is awake. America is back. 

This is our country, and no one can tell us otherwise. We want leaders who love our country, who will work for us and not themselves, and like our Founding Fathers before us, we will do whatever it takes to secure that end.

That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. – Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776. 

9. God’s hand is on him. Finally, I sincerely believe God has His hand on this man. By every stretch of the imagination, he should have had no chance at winning the nomination. Every credible political scientist scoffed at his candidacy. Typically, insurgents gain a temporary bump in the polls, but then their candidacy plummets as the media scrutinizes every nook and cranny of their laundry list and blasts them with negative coverage. And without establishment support, they usually don’t recover. Not so with Donald Trump. The media kept attacking, yet Trump kept on winning. No matter how much negative coverage he got, the man seemed practically invincible. I don’t think that’s something you can explain entirely with facts alone. 

Every election cycle, we bemoan the dreaded decision of picking between the “lesser of two evils.” But with this election, I honestly believe it is a battle of good versus evil. Hillary Clinton is the most vile, wicked, corrupt human being to ever run for the presidency. She wouldn’t just be the first woman president, she’d be the first criminal president. And what happens when you elect criminals? This wonderful young man says it best: 

Donald Trump may not be a perfect man, but he is a good man. He loves this country and wants to save it from a looming destiny of destruction. He took all these attacks from every possible direction simply because he knew he had to. He had to do what was right, at any cost. And I became even more convinced of this fundamental battle when I began witnessing good, amazing people flocking to him, praying over him for his continued strength and protection (see below). The prayer shawl video especially got to me. I’ve never seen or heard of anything like this with any presidential candidate in my life. Yet here we are, roomfulls of great Christians from all colors and creeds praying for a man they truly believe God has chosen for such a time as this.

Conclusions

I truly believe that thirty, forty years from now, Donald Trump will be lauded as a great American hero. Like Ronald Reagan before him, he will become a legend woven into America history. Yet, for all these good things, it would serve us well to also remember the negatives — to remember the hell he went through to get there. For as much as we love legends, nothing quite compares to a tale of great struggle. It belies human nature and strikes us at our very core. It reminds us that in order to do something truly great and achieve the impossible (or just do the right thing), we often have to make enemies and throw a few punches. And no one is more fit to do so than Donald Trump. That said, I believe we’re in for something truly special on November 8th.

I have no doubt that Donald J. Trump will be the 45th President of the United States. Let’s Make America Great Again, my fellow Deplorables.

God bless you all, God bless Donald Trump, and God bless the United States of America.

Categories: Politics
  • Good article. You can also take some of the polling data, such as from Axiom statewide NV poll, and see vote share by voter identity. The experts like Jon Ralston and the media wants you to think Hillary early vote turnout means it’s a slam dunk. But this is a change election and the high # of independents + Dem crossovers + reduced black turnout puts Trump at least 4-pts higher than the polling. See an example: https://twitter.com/tommymindtrick/status/795187230817951744